HELSINKI (AP) — Latvians will vote Saturday in a general election that has been significantly influenced by neighboring Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the political disintegration of the Baltic country’s large ethnic Russian minority, and related issues. to the economy, including high energies. costs.

Polls show Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins’ New Unity party, which leads the current four-party centre-right minority coalition, is likely to emerge as the vote leader, projecting 13%-20% of the vote cast by the 1.5 million eligible voters.

The election is likely to be followed by a long period of negotiations and coalition building, but analysts say there is a good chance that Karins – who has led the Baltic nation of 1.9million people through the COVID-19 crisis, among others – always come first. minister at the end.

“In this very unstable situation that we find ourselves in now, people just see him as a trustworthy person,” said Pauls Raudseps, a columnist at the Latvian news magazine IR.

The election is likely to spell the end of the opposition Harmony party, which has so far been favored by Latvia’s Russian ethnic minority, which makes up more than 25% of the population.

The pro-Moscow party has traditionally served as an umbrella party for most Russian-speaking voters in Latvia, including Belarusians and Ukrainians. In the last elections of 2018, it was the largest single party, with almost 20% of the vote, but it was excluded by other parties from entering government.

However, the party’s immediate and fierce opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused many who still support Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon it. Meanwhile, those opposed to the war have tended to gravitate towards the main Latvian parties, all of which are equally opposed to the invasion.

Harmony is now in fifth place with 5.1% support, according to a recent poll by Latvian public broadcaster LSM. Only the parties which obtain at least 5% of the votes will enter the national parliament.

“It’s over for Harmony,” said Juris Rozenvalds, professor of political science at the University of Latvia. He added that no other party catering to Russian speakers seemed likely to take his place.

Since the attack, Latvia – a former Soviet republic that is a member of the European Union and NATO – has taken several steps directly related to the conflict, including the introduction of military conscription next year after a hiatus of more of 15 years, banning Russians from entering the country on tourist visas and the dismantling of a Soviet World War II monument in the capital, Riga.

This week, the government announced a state of emergency in some Latvian border areas as a precautionary measure following Russia’s partial military mobilization. Like its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Lithuania, Latvia refuses to grant political asylum to Russian military reservists fleeing conscription.

Karins, a 57-year-old Latvian-American dual citizen born in Wilmington, Delaware, told the media that it would be easier to continue with the same coalition combination if New Unity won. He ruled out any cooperation with pro-Kremlin parties.

A recent poll by Latvian public broadcaster LSM placed the opposition Greens and Farmers Union with 7.8% support in second place and the centre-right National Alliance – a coalition member – just a fraction higher. far.

The other current members of the coalition are the centrist Development/For! and conservatives.

There are 19 parties in total with more than 1,800 candidates running, but only about eight parties are expected to cross the 5% threshold and secure a seat in the 100-seat Saeima legislature.

Illustrating the turbulent nature of Latvian politics, the fact that Karins’ cabinet – which took office in January 2019 after lengthy formation talks – is the longest-serving government in Latvian history, with little more 3 and a half years behind him.