The big news since our last edition has been that House Democrats have passed their $ 1.75 trillion social and climate spending program, but what happens next is unclear.

Why is this important: The bill, if it crosses the finish line, would be by far the most radical US climate package ever passed.

• The provisions – including more than $ 300 billion in clean energy tax incentives – are critical to the White House’s goal of reducing U.S. emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Yes, but: The House plan approved on Friday is subject to change in the Senate. Here are some things we observe:

1. Electric vehicles. The plan would expand consumer tax incentives, and one of the main ways is that union-made electric vehicles can receive up to $ 4,500 more in incentives than the base credit of $ 7,500.

• But Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) would disagree with the union provision, and non-union automakers are also pushing against it.
• “The union arrangement can be problematic from an international business perspective in any case. I wouldn’t bet on seeing it in the final draft,” Kevin Book, ClearView Energy Partners, said in an email exchange. .

2. Carbon pricing. There is an intermittent buzz about a carbon tax push, but the chances are very long.

3. The clock. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) wants to complete the plan before Christmas, but the schedule is very tight and negotiations could drag on. If talks extend into 2022, the plan could lose momentum.

4. The overall size. The plan has over $ 500 billion in total in clean energy and climate provisions, so keep an eye out for the persistence of this overall size and reach.

5. Royalties on methane and other provisions relating to oil and gas. The House plan charges up to $ 1,500 per tonne on industry methane emissions.

• Manchin, whose state is a major gas producer, is again a legislator to watch.
• ClearView’s book notes one of the reasons a methane royalty might survive: “Appalachian gas production could be a relative winner in terms of methane intensity. “
• The plan also increases royalty rates for oil and gas production on federal lands and waters and includes new fees on federal leases.

Go further … Poll: 52% of Americans say they have been affected by global warming